Ohlendorf Super Genius
Well I was all prepared to post about how I was hoping Ross OhlenDwarf would be like one of the short hairy warriors from Lord of the Rings.
But then I read this.
A Princeton graduate with a major in operations research and financial engineering, Ohlendorf looked at the Draft from 1989-93 to determine the value of the top 100 picks based on a return on the investment made by the team that drafted each player.
That return wasn’t dependent solely on what was spent on signing bonus; salary also played a part. The Pirates right-hander tracked the progress of each player for a 12-year period, using the sabermetric Win Shares to determine each player’s value. Return on the investment was largely figured out by looking at that player’s contribution before reaching free agency compared with his salary over that period. Ohlendorf compared salaries for both the players in the study and free agents for those years. Even with some in the study never making the big leagues, Ohlendorf found that the players in his study brought twice the return of investment based on his criteria.
WHAT? Turns out the Pirates have a Super Genius amongst them capable of saving the world. But can he break the curse?
I will honest and say I read that entire article linked above and have no clue what Ross is talking about. But here is a quote that I think applies to breaking The Curse of Bonds.
“You could guess, but you couldn’t tell for sure because you don’t know how future salary markets would be,” Ohlendorf explained. “If free-agent salaries go up, the future will be more valuable. If it goes down, it’ll be less valuable because you can sign free agents for less. If you assume it’ll stay about the same, you can try to estimate it.
“The best way to estimate would be over the first three years, he’d have to perform about the same as a free-agent contract for three years at whatever his signing bonus is. That’d be the starting point, the easy way to look at it, but it wouldn’t be real precise.”